Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
